GFL lifts outlook for third time this year after Q3 revenue jumps 27%, despite net loss

GFL Environmental Inc. is weighing offers to take the company private, with a deadline of November 9, 2026, for interested parties to submit final proposals. A Special Committee of independent directors was formed during the third quarter to review the unsolicited bids and will decide on next steps once the deadline passes. 

The waste services company also raised its full-year 2026 guidance for the third time this year, partly to reflect its pending acquisition of SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp.

Under that deal, Joseph Lenz, a TPG partner and SECURE board member since 2022, will join GFL's board as SECURE's nominee, expanding it to nine directors.

Third-quarter results

Revenue rose 27.2% to $2,155.3 million, including 5.7% from core pricing. Organic growth was 7.4%, so acquisitions drove much of the increase. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 26.8% to $678.7 million from $535.1 million a year earlier.

The adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.5%, essentially flat against 31.6% in the prior-year quarter. GFL says that excluding the effects of acquisitions and diesel prices, its margin expanded by 115 basis points. Adjusted free cash flow rose to $272.5 million from $180.5 million.

Despite the growth, GFL reported a net loss from continuing operations of $28.0 million, compared with net income of $90.4 million a year earlier. The company repurchased no shares during the quarter but said it may do so opportunistically.

Nine-month results

For the first nine months of the year, revenue was $5,746.9 million, up 16.6%, with 6.3% from core pricing. Adjusted EBITDA rose 18.4% to $1,748.4 million, and the margin improved to 30.4% from 29.9%. Adjusted free cash flow reached $484.9 million, up from $331.3 million. The net loss from continuing operations was $409.8 million, compared with net income of $123.5 million in the same period of 2025.

Updated guidance

GFL now expects full-year revenue of $8,055 million to $8,075 million, up from the prior range of $7,510 million to $7,530 million. Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $2,490 million to $2,495 million, versus about $2,290 million previously, and the margin is expected to be about 30.9%, up 40 basis points from prior guidance despite higher diesel costs. Adjusted free cash flow is forecast at about $1,020 million, up from $900 million.

The company also expects net capital expenditures of about $910 million, cash interest of about $455 million, and net leverage in the mid-3x range by year-end. It says it is working to raise free cash flow conversion toward the mid-40% range.

The guidance assumes a USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.40 for the rest of the year and no change in the economic environment, including fuel and commodity prices. It includes acquisitions completed as of October 1, net of divestitures, but excludes any deals that have not yet closed.