What the evolution in household collection streams means for recyclers
Material streams are becoming lighter, more varied, and more complex to manage
The Recycling Partnership has released the second installment of its 2026 State of Recycling Report — a comprehensive assessment of the U.S. residential recycling system. Built on The Partnership's National Recycling Database, multi-year field measurement studies, and capture rate analyses, The Evolving Ton: Residential Generation Data examines the packaging and printed paper that U.S. households discard into both trash and recycling, revealing a material mix that is becoming lighter, more varied, and more operationally complex to manage.
Understanding consumer behaviour is key to maximizing recycling rates
What comes out of the home shapes the U.S. residential recycling system. Understanding how the material mix is changing helps producers, policymakers, communities, processors, and recycling leaders prepare collection, processing, and end markets to recover more material and return it to productive use.
The report found that since 2020, the number of U.S. households has grown by approximately 8.5 million, while generation of traditionally collected material has declined by 3.7 million tons, or 8 percent, excluding film. On a household basis, cardboard increased 32 percent, consistent with the continued growth of e-commerce. Generation of mixed paper declined 34 percent, and glass declined 28 percent, while cartons increased 61 percent, non-bottle PET increased 48 percent, polypropylene increased 47 percent, aluminum foil and trays increased 44 percent, and aluminum cans increased 18 percent.
"What comes out of American homes shapes what our recycling system must be ready to handle next," said Cody Marshall, chief programs officer at The Recycling Partnership. "This new data shows not only the scale of the opportunity, with households generating roughly 705 pounds of traditionally collected recyclable materials plus film and flexibles each year, but how quickly that material mix is changing. Understanding those shifts gives producers, policymakers, communities, and recyclers the information they need to make smarter investments in collection, processing, and end markets, keeping more valuable material in the U.S. economy as feedstock for domestic manufacturing, strengthening supply chains, and supporting job-creating economic development."
Key findings include:
- The material mix is shifting: Per-household generation of cardboard, metals, and plastic containers grew from a combined 39 percent of traditionally collected material generation in 2020 to 51 percent in 2026. With film and flexibles included, combined plastics now represent 31 percent of generation, surpassing mixed paper at 28 percent.
- Recycling supply chain investment and policy are critical: As noted in our first installment, recycling works when there are supply chains to turn old stuff into new stuff. Collection and processing are essential infrastructure, but they must be matched with strong markets for sorted materials. Understanding how the residential material mix is evolving provides critical data to guide investment and inform policies that can strengthen recycling supply chains and demand for domestically sourced recycled content.
- The connection between Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) and non-EPR states remains critical to a strong national system: EPR can accelerate improvements in states with enacted policies, but recycling supply chains do not stop at state lines. Strengthening the U.S. recycling system will also require sustained investment in non-EPR states to manage the evolving stream, helping communities that rely largely on local funding to expand collection, processing, and recovery while maintaining quality.
- Packaging choices affect the entire recycling supply chain: U.S. households will generate 51.5 million tons of packaging and printed paper in 2026, with 78 percent falling within traditionally collected material categories. What is designed and produced upstream ultimately shapes what residents discard, and what collection programs, materials recovery facilities, processors, and end markets must manage. As the packaging and printed paper stream evolves, the recycling system responsible for recovering it needs comparable investment and innovation to keep pace.
The Partnership is releasing the State of Recycling Report in installments in 2026 to deliver timely, strategic data and insights and best support the rapidly evolving regulatory landscape.
