Recovered paper industry faces price swings, policy shifts, and growing demand

At the BIR World Recycling Convention in Valencia in May, industry experts discussed the issues of tariffs and economic nationalism and how recyclers can continue to strengthen specifications and promote recyclables as essential materials. 

This approach to the sector is essential as cross-border trade pressures have put sustainability under threat, an idea shared by keynote speaker Brian Henesey, past chair of ReMA and vice president of Rocky Mountain Recycling Inc. (USA) at the BIR Paper Division plenary session.

The gathering also heard from other speakers on topics including recovered paper markets, legislative developments, and shipping challenges. 

The keynote address at the BIR Paper Division session 

During Henesey's keynote address, he asked "How did we get here?" He responded that the global recycling industry was built on global interdependence.

"Yet today, we're witnessing a steady erosion of that framework. Tariffs, export bans, and nationalistic policies are challenging the very foundations of our cross-border trade. This is just not an economic issue. It's the future of sustainability, circular economies, and frankly, global cooperation."

Emphasizing that the recycled materials industry is not local or national, but global, he declared: "Our success, indeed, our entire model is built on a finely tuned web of global interdependence. For decades, the system has allowed material to flow efficiently from where it's discarded to where it's needed. From the United States to Southeast Asia, from Europe to Turkey, and from Latin America to India, these cross-border flows have enabled economies to grow, manufacturers to access affordable inputs, and communities to reduce waste and pollution. But that system is now under growing strain and, make no mistakes, this isn't just about economics, it's about the long-term viability of the circular economy."

Henesey listed three big fears for the industry: export bans, more tariffs, and regulatory divergence. "So, what can we do?" he asked. "The first thing as an industry is that we need to continue to strengthen our international standards." He added that there was also a need to continue the promotion of recyclables as essential materials and strengthen the argument that recyclables are not waste. "Without our industry, there is no decarbonization, there is no circularity."

Global markets flex to the changing demand of paper

The Paper Division then turned to the topic of markets with three presentations. A European view came from Tobias Umpfenbach, director of ALBA Wertstoff Management (DEU); Ranjit Baxi, founder of J&H Sales International (GBR) covered Asia and in particular India; and Simone Scaramuzzi, commercial director of LCI (ITA), reported on South East Asia.

Umpfenbach shared that, "The market is moving much faster. The volatility has become much more than we have been used to from recent periods and there is a lot of movement within the market. "And of course, what does that result in for us as market players? This results in higher risk exposure for those in the market," he said. "It is always challenging that these price hikes and periods of extreme demand that we are faced with are also directly connected or followed by periods where nothing is turning around."

Ranjit Baxi gave the next market report and focused on the drivers for the paper market in India. He said the literacy rate is one: "The Prime Minister Modi Indian government, their primary focus is on increasing the literacy rate through literacy educational programs across the country. The more and more schools and academic institutions opening pushes up the demand for paper."

"There's also the packaging boom, the E-commerce business the world over is increasing, and so it is in India. With FMcG, fast-moving consumer goods, the growth of that is phenomenal in India. Retail growth is increasing and therefore the need for boxes is increasing." Tissue products, Baxi noted, are also seeing rising demand. "Following Covid people have become more aware about their health and their own hygiene. So, the demand for hygienic products, packaging, and personal use products are increasing."

Simone Scaramuzzi from LCI was the third speaker on markets. He shared that from 2023 through 2024, the market experienced notable volatility driven by shifting global demand, particularly from Asia. The export volumes from Europe declined, with total recovered paper shipment dropping from 7 to 5.5 million tonnes. However, he questioned whether the 5.5 million tonne figure — which was used by a lot of sources — was correct, and shared that by adding up exports to individual countries a higher number was reached.

On exports, he said that India, Indonesia, and Vietnam remained the largest importers from Europe. The market has changed a lot from 2023 to 2025, said Scaramuzzi. In 2025 he said that tariffs came the dollar became weaker and the sector had lost a huge part of the price. 

Looking at Europe he listed all the paper mills that are installing new machines or converting machines from graphic paper to brown. "Some of them have already started the production, some of them are going to start, some of them are delaying, constantly delaying. But anyway, it is a fact that a total of 4.12 million tonnes more are going to be produced in Europe. "My question is, do we have all the orders for all these machines? And that's the point," he commented, with some machines delayed while others were postponed.

EU Waste Shipments Regulations and End of Waste Regulations

The Paper Division meeting then turned its attention to the EU Waste Shipments Regulation and to the End of Waste Regulations.

Julia Ettinger, secretary general of EuRIC covered the latest news around the Waste Shipments Regulation. With Europe exporting five to around eight million tonnes of recovered paper there was a "structural oversupply", she said. Ms Ettinger questioned what would happen if these exports were "walled off by legislation" from being sent out of Europe and especially to non-OECD countries. "It's about the major export markets India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia."

Last April, the Waste Shipments Regulation was finally published, she explained. It applies to OECD countries from 20 May 2024, "so countries like the United States, like Canada, like Japan, this means that a so-called monitoring system has kicked in. This is applicable to all shipments that are considered as waste."

"If we now look at 2025, one deadline has already elapsed, that is the 21 February. This was a very crucial deadline for non-OECD countries. Here of course very importantly India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand had time to apply to the European Union by answering a long questionnaire stating their interest to continue receiving waste paper from their mills in their countries. If they have not done this, then they will not be able in the future to import waste from the European Union." The next step is the EU assessing whether or not requirements are met and on 21 November 2026 the decisions will be known, she explained. 

Transitions in the global shipping market 

The final speaker of the session was Nuria Rubio, sales and customer manager at FR Meyer's Sohn (ESP), a freight forward business, who spoke about global transportation logistics. 

Discussing the challenges in the shipping market, Rubio shared that, "The world is changing day by day and more and more in logistics. Above all, as I see all we have learned for the past 20 years, all the patterns we knew do not exist anymore. The last five years since Covid have been convulsive years as we all know. So, we have seen global trade has changed a lot. My suggestion is to be flexible and adaptable as a key point in your supply chain. Working on diversification of trades and partners will mitigate any impact in this disruptive time."