A recap of copper price trends in the first quarter of 2026

Last year was a period of unprecedented volatility in copper prices worldwide. When U.S. President Donald Trump's term began in January 2025, he announced that import tariffs would soon be imposed on a range of products.

The industrial and manufacturing sector braced for import duties on copper products. President Trump's administration levied 50 percent import tariffs on semi-finished copper products, but not refined copper.

Traders rushed to send copper to the U.S. before the tariffs took effect, and the COMEX copper next-active contract climbed from $4.03 per pound on January 1, 2025, to $5.82 per pound by July of that same year.

During that period, 500,000 metric tonnes of copper were shipped to the U.S. Additionally, there were issues with copper supply during the same period, helping shore up its prices.

By August 1, 2025, the next-active price had crashed to $4.35 per pound after President Trump's administration levied import tariffs on semi-finished copper products but exempted refined copper. Still, copper prices started climbing that same day and have been on a steady increase ever since, reaching a new high of $6.06 per pound as of March 1, 2026.

What to expect from copper prices in 2026

This year, the uncertainty on additional import tariffs for other copper products remains a factor. A decision on those tariffs will be made in June, but other factors continue to support the copper market.

Worldwide demand for copper is robust, and supply has not met those expectations. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), there was a surplus of 380,000 metric tonnes of refined copper in 2025, a 451 percent increase from 69,000 metric tonnes in 2024.

Global refined copper consumption inched up by 3 percent to 28.16 million metric tonnes from 27.33 million metric tonnes during the same period — Australia's Resources and Energy Quarterly projects consumption will reach 29 million metric tonnes by 2027 — while global copper mine production grew by 1 percent to 23.13 million metric tonnes from 22.96 million metric tonnes.

Chile's output fell by 1.6 percent annually in 2025. ICSG forecasts that global refining capacity will grow by 3.9 percent from 2026 to 2028.

Disruptions in copper supply

Some of the most significant copper output disruptions this year — which have helped shore up copper prices — have occurred at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, owned by Freeport McMoran and the Indonesian government.

On September 8, 2025, 800,000 wet metric tonnes of material flooded several levels of the underground complex. It is estimated that 270,000 metric tonnes of copper output will be lost in 2026 due to this disruption.

The Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) suffered flooding-related disruptions in mid-2025. Although dewatering efforts have been successful and production has resumed, Ivanhoe Mines, which owns the complex, lowered its copper guidance for 2026 to 380,000-420,000 metric tonnes from 520,000-580,000 metric tonnes in 2025.

El Teniente copper mine in Chile, operated by state company CODELCO and the world's ninth-largest copper mine, went offline in July 2025. Operations resumed in September 2025; however, the miner's annual output will be reduced by approximately 25,000 metric tonnes.

Data centres are the newest sector driving copper consumption

Apart from the global decarbonization efforts already driving copper demand, the AI data centre sector has only exacerbated the global need for copper.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), data centre construction in the U.S. has doubled over the past two years as big companies in the sector, such as Amazon and Microsoft, continue to invest heavily in data centres to stay at the forefront of the AI revolution.

Data centres are the technological backbone that powers AI's complex calculations and require copper for their power networks, circuit boards, and cooling systems. Microsoft's $500 million data centre in Chicago, Illinois, used 2,177 metric tonnes of copper.

Additionally, there's the copper required in the energy infrastructure that feeds the data centres. IEA reported that a large hyperscale data centre consumes in one year the electricity that could power 350,000-400,000 electric vehicles.

Financial speculation causes price swings

Despite stable demand trending upward, copper market prices in 2026 have ebbed and flowed as they did the previous year, sometimes wildly (also like in 2025). Some of these wild swings are due to financial speculation.

This year, LME's official settlement copper cash price reached $13,842 per metric tonne as investors, particularly "Chinese bulls", invested heavily in copper futures — COMEX's cash spot price peaked around $6.50 per pound in January, a historical high.

The trend was speculative in nature, of course, and not tied to actual changes in supply and demand. The price fell as soon as the bullish run ended, and the COMEX cash spot price at the beginning of March sits at $5.75 per metric tonne.

The current environment for recycled copper

The recycled copper environment has differed somewhat from last year, unlike primary copper prices. Recycled copper spreads have remained relatively stable this year as opposed to 2025, when discounts grew to never-before-seen levels.

In August 2025, the spread for #2 copper in the domestic market widened to $1.55 per pound under the COMEX spot cash agreement, a level not seen before, according to seasoned contacts in the sector.

Discounts grew at that time as the uncertainty in the market made it difficult for U.S. sellers to obtain quotes from domestic buyers and exporters, who were unwilling to re-enter the market amid the uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's import tariffs on copper products

The arbitrage, or disparity between COMEX and LME future contracts, had also reached historic levels at that time, approaching a one-dollar difference.

In 2026, the arbitrage has remained stable. It currently sits at two cents, with the LME three-month agreement at $5.82 per pound and the COMEX next-active contract at $5.80 per pound. Domestic demand has not been robust in 2026, yet the export market has been a source of stable demand for sellers in 2026.

This article originally appeared in the March/April 2026 issue of Recycling Product News.